Drilling safety and efficiency are greatly impacted by kick, a major problem that is hard to diagnose, assess, and predict due to the complexity and high uncertainty of the deep water drilling formation pressure system. This article forms a pre-drilling well kick probability prediction method by establishing a calculation model for wellbore ECD and using the numerical solution method of Monte Carlo simulation algorithm. The bottomhole pressure uncertainty range gradually increases with well depth, according to simulation calculations, and the probability of a well kick decreases with drilling fluid volume. Theoretically, safe well control in deepwater drilling can be guided by the well-established kick diagnosis and formation pressure assessment techniques.