In order to predict the carbon emissions of civil airports and the possibility of carbon peaking, the influence of key factors of carbon reduction on carbon emissions was studied. This paper takes a large hub airport in southwest China as the research object, sets the terminal energy demand module on the LEAP model of the airport to calculate the energy demand of the airport, and sets the carbon emission of the airport into three different scenarios: baseline scenario, low carbon scenario and zero carbon scenario, so as to predict the carbon emission trend of the airport and the possibility of carbon peaking in the next year. The analysis data in this paper can provide reference for civil airports to make "dual carbon" implementation plan.